Introduction
The province of Zeeland is one of the most visited destinations in the Netherlands. Each year, the province welcomes more than 3 million vacationers who come to enjoy Zeeland’s rich culture and natural beauty. In 2023, these guests collectively spent nearly 22 million overnight stays in the province. The Netherlands, Germany, and Belgium are the primary countries of origin. The coastal municipalities of Schouwen-Duiveland (26.5%), Veere (27.1%), and Sluis (21.7%) account for the largest share of overnight stays in the province.
Overnight visitors spent nearly one billion euros in Zeeland in 2023. This significant economic boost also translates into employment. Direct employment at tourism and recreation businesses totals nearly 18,000 jobs. This makes the sector the fifth-largest employer in Zeeland, after healthcare, retail, manufacturing, and business services. Indirectly, the leisure sector supports many more jobs, for example through visitor spending in other sectors and at suppliers. Because of these indirect effects, the interdependence with other economic sectors is unprecedentedly high.
The leisure sector plays an essential role in people’s well-being. A day trip or weekend getaway—and making memories with loved ones—recharges one’s energy. These moments of relaxation, social interaction, and new experiences contribute to people’s well-being and promote a healthy balance in daily life. The leisure sector thus has a direct impact on residents’ quality of life. For example, tourism providers (also) offer their services to residents of the region. Residents themselves also make use of route networks for cycling, hiking, and boating, and events help make a region attractive. In addition, the sector contributes to the preservation of and investment in, for example, retail, cultural and natural heritage, public amenities, and infrastructure. All in all, tourism makes a significant contribution to Zeeland’s quality of life, level of amenities, and economy.
Zeeland’s leisure sector is working hard on the necessary transitions to ensure a future-proof destination, addressing issues such as public support, sustainability, limited space, and entrepreneurship. It is important that stakeholders have access to the right knowledge and support so they can make the right choices.
Background
The “Zeeland 2030” vision outlines a Zeeland-wide thematic goal to create a leisure sector that is in harmony with society and the environment, and in which all stakeholders thrive. However, the leisure sector is developing rapidly, and the number of visitors coming to Zeeland is expected to continue growing in the coming years. The question is how Zeeland as a destination can continue to serve these guests in the long term, while remaining within the limits of Zeeland’s ecosystem. This includes, among other things, the province’s carrying capacity and the level of support for tourism among residents.
In addition to research on current actual behavior (regular visitor surveys, visitor surveys) and Zeeland’s capacity as a destination (resident surveys, mobility), the challenge was therefore to gain more insight into expected visitor behavior. It was plausible that the current behavior of visitors to the province of Zeeland is subject to change due to various external factors. Will this lead to shifts in user groups, different behavior, and/or different needs in the future? And how does this visitor of the future relate to Zeeland as a destination?
Between 2022 and 2024, the HZ Coastal Tourism Knowledge Center conducted research on the visitor of the future in Zeeland in 2040. The final result is a profile of this future visitor, shaped by the influence of societal developments. This study was conducted in collaboration with the European Tourism Futures Institute (ETFI) at NHL Stenden.
Results
Relatively predictable drivers of change were used to develop a baseline scenario for 2040, referred to as the expected or probable future—at least assuming no major surprises, trend reversals, or disruptions occur. In addition, the characteristics of the current era in which Zeeland’s leisure sector finds itself were taken into account. The scenario answers the (research) question: What will the visitor to Zeeland in 2040 look like? This baseline scenario addresses the topics identified as important in the domain analysis that was conducted. The domain analysis subsequently guided the era analysis and horizon scanning, providing insight into the Zeeland visitor and their characteristics in the past, present, and future. The baseline scenario is divided into three sections: “Who is the visitor?”, “What does the visitor want?”, and “What does the visitor do?”. This is supplemented by a brief description of the main challenges facing Zeeland as a province and a vacation destination.
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