In 2015, I was a first-year water management student at the Delta Academy. I was as confused as many first-year students are, trying to adapt to the Netherlands education system while adulting for the first time (still a work in progress). While I was busy turning 18, the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) was busy making an agreement between 184 states. The Paris agreement.
The Paris Agreement
The goal of the Paris Agreement is to avoid the global temperature from rising above 2 ºC from the pre-industrial level. It also recognise 1.5 ºC as the tipping point, the point of no return.
Paris agreement conference, 2015.
The IPCC report
On this matter, the IPPC (intergovernmental panel on climate change) delivered a special report this past October. As of the date of the report, human activities already caused a 1.0 °C increase.
It was estimated that if polluting human activities continue at the same rate, the temperature will reach the 1.5 °C in between 2030 and 2052. That is, worst case scenario, 11 years from now...
Why 1.5 °C?
First of all, if the temperature on land would rise, the sea level rise response would continue for a long time (estimated beyond the year2100). It means that your grandchildren will still be talking about – and dealing with – human influence on sea level.
If kept at a maximum of 1.5 °C, the sea level will rise up to 0.77m, putting many communities at risk. However, if we exceed this temperature and reach the ultimate 2°C threshold, 10 million more people would experience climate change related hazards.
Ecologically speaking, a 1.5 °C increase in temperature would create important damages, but nothing compared to a 2°C temperature increase.
If we succeed in keeping the temperature below the 1.5°C increase, there is estimated to be one ice-free Arctic summer every 100 years. In the case of a 2°C increment, we would experience these every 10 years.
To name one of the many negative effects on marine ecosystems, coral reefs are projected to decline by 70-90% with a 1.5 °C increment in temperature, while more than 99% would be lost if the temperature reaches the 2.0 °C.
This blog is just to give an idea and remind you about climate change, to get a complete idea I would advise you to read the entire report.