As a researcher, you can come up with all kinds of technical solutions to problems such as sea level rise, but if the residents don't like them, they're of little use. Vincent Bax of the Resilient Deltas research group is investigating public support for major coastal safety projects. He hopes to obtain his PhD on this subject.
Vincent Bax has already published several scientific articles on public support. "It has long been an outsider in coastal safety projects", he says. "We are one of the first to conduct research into public support, and we do so using theoretically well-founded questionnaires." He has become increasingly interested in the subject. "The relationship between humans and nature has always interested me. After my studies in Wageningen, I went to South America. In Peru, I conducted research into the relationship between residents and the forest ecosystem. To do this, I conducted many interviews with the local population. Discussions about policy and support are far removed from their daily reality. Their concerns are mainly focused on immediate, practical matters, such as whether there will be enough food that evening."
Support often has little to do with reason, but rather with emotion: gut feeling.
No support, no measures
In the Netherlands, it does matter. According to Vincent, public support is an important part of large projects that have an impact on people and the environment. "You can conduct endless research into the technical, ecological and economic aspects of these types of projects. But if there is no public support, it becomes very difficult to realise these types of projects at all."
Last year, Vincent published the article 'Emotions, trust, and expectations: Comparing determinants of public support for managed realignment across cases' in the Journal of Environmental Management. In the article, he describes the public support research for three projects in Zeeland where tidal restoration has been applied: the Hedwige Polder, Perk Polder and Rammegors. All three involve measures in the field of climate adaptation and nature restoration that have already been implemented.
Delta Wealth and Storm Surge Barriers
In that respect, it differs from his PhD research. For that, he measures the support for interventions that are yet to take place. He started his PhD programme at TU Delft in 2025. It was a long-cherished ambition. "Ever since graduating from Wageningen, I wanted to do a PhD. And actually, I thought it would never happen." He got his chance through the multi-year NWO research project 'Delta Wealth', for which HZ is the lead partner.
"Storm surge barriers and the road to a safe and liveable delta", a study into the future of structures such as the Oosterschelde barrier, also plays an important role in his PhD programme. Both deal with climate change and its consequences for the Southwest Delta. This requires all kinds of measures and long-term strategies. "My colleagues look at issues such as ecology, morphology, economics and water safety, but I am researching public support. To what extent is there support for climate adaptation strategies? For example, I also ask how people feel about the future of the Oosterschelde barrier. What adjustments are needed to maintain the barrier and make it resistant to sea level rise? Or should the Oosterschelde be completely closed off in the future?"
What makes PhD research difficult is that it measures support for interventions that many people are not (yet) familiar with. "It sounds distant and conceptual to many people. So we have to explain the concepts clearly. I am also involved in the “No sea too high” project. We use animations in that project. For example, we use them to show how a tidal polder works. We compare that with traditional dyke raising. It works well. I want to use it for my PhD too."
You can conduct endless research into the technical, ecological and economic aspects of these types of projects. But if there is no public support, it becomes very difficult to realise these types of projects at all.
Ratio versus emotion
IIn the article in the Journal of Environmental Management, Vincent describes the determining factors for public support for measures relating to climate adaptation and nature restoration. "First and foremost, emotions are important. Support is not only a matter of reason, but above all of emotion: gut feeling. That makes it difficult to steer. Policymakers often explain the pros and cons of measures, but that does not always determine people's judgement. Their emotions play at least as big a role."
Trust and expectations are also important determinants of public support. "It's about the extent to which people expect measures to have positive or negative effects. Trust in the government plays a role in this. If people expect positive effects, such as the restoration of nature, they are more positive about the measures than if the opposite is true. If someone is very attached to a typical Dutch landscape with dykes, ditches and green meadows, and something else is going to replace it, then there is a good chance that he or she will be negative about the measures. They don't want that landscape to disappear and be replaced by something unknown."
Resilient Deltas
The Resilient Deltas lectorate conducts practical research into how to design a delta region to be as safe as possible and how to use the power of society, government and business to create a vital, resilient delta.
Read more about the lectorate